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Synergy Research Group said the increase will be driven primarily by aggressive build-outs from hyperscale operators, whose owned data center capacity is expected to double within two years
In sum – what to know:
Capacity growth – Synergy expects U.S. data center capacity to double over the next three years, despite power availability and public opinion obstacles.
Hyperscaler expansion – Hyperscale operators will drive much of the growth, with their owned data center capacity expected to double within two years.
Neocloud mix – Neocloud operators do not fit a single model, using combinations of owned facilities, leased capacity and colocation arrangements.
U.S. data center capacity is expected to double over the next three years despite constraints around power availability and growing local concerns, according to Synergy Research Group.
The research firm said the increase will be driven primarily by aggressive build-outs from hyperscale operators, whose owned data center capacity is expected to double within two years.
Synergy’s known pipeline of future large data centers includes almost 1,500 facilities worldwide, with almost half located in the U.S. The U.S. portion represents around 45GW of additional IT capacity, with 74 companies expanding their data center footprints.
While hyperscalers will account for the bulk of the added capacity, colocation providers and enterprises will also contribute to growth, including through data center operators leasing facilities to hyperscalers and through the expansion of neoclouds.
John Dinsdale, chief analyst at Synergy Research Group, said the constraints facing developers are significant but have not changed the company’s outlook for continued capacity expansion.
“It is indisputable that constrained availability of power and rising local concerns over data centers are crimping many new plans for data centers,” Dinsdale said. “But it is also clear that data center developers will continue to find ways around those issues and that booming demand will continue to drive aggressive capacity growth.”
Dinsdale added that the U.S. will continue to account for well over half of the world’s operational data center capacity over the next five years. Seven hyperscale companies are driving much of the growth as they build out U.S. AI campuses, while another 67 companies are building large data centers or campuses in the country.
In an interview with RCRTech, Dinsdale pointed to continued growth in cloud service revenues as a key indicator behind Synergy’s confidence in future demand.
“The market is already massive, and yet the growth rate has now increased for the tenth successive quarter – and it will increase again in Q2. There is an insatiable demand for AI technology and services,” he said.
The balance between different types of data center operators is also changing. Dinsdale said hyperscale operators are expected to account for an increasing share of overall capacity, whether they build facilities themselves or lease capacity from data center specialists.
“There is a strong multi-year transition going on with hyperscale operators accounting for an ever-large share of data center capacity – whether own build or leased from data center specialists,” the analyst added.
Neocloud operators, however, do not fit neatly into that structure, according to Dinsdale. “Neocloud as category do not fit neatly into this picture. They have a variety of business and operational models, either building data centers for their own use, leasing capacity from their data centers, themselves leasing capacity from colocation operators, or doing a mix of these.”
Synergy’s separate analysis forecasts that hyperscale operators will account for 67% of global data center capacity by 2031, up from 48% at the end of 2025.
