We are currently in the peak of this quarter’s earnings season, and Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta’s anticipated reports have investors bracing for a combined 2026 Capex exceeding $600–700 billion. Is that spend yielding the type of returns that investors want to see? We will know after trading ends today, but here are some projections:
Microsoft’s revenue growth will be about +15%, with operating income growth of 20%, and a backlog that more than doubled (to over $600 billion because of OpenAI). Despite that, Microsoft is expected to see a dip due to +65% growth in Capex, including heavy investment in OpenAI, which recently missed internal revenue targets. Regardless, returns on invested capital from this cycle are expected to remain strong.
Alphabet will report updates to Gemini and Google Cloud revenue. Its Q1 2026 Capex for AI infrastructure is expected to be about $175 billion to $185 billion – more than doubling what it spent in 2025 on data centers and machine learning compute. Alphabet’s stock has climbed roughly 30% over the past six months, with cloud revenue reaching $17.66 billion in Q4, and projections for $18.4 billion in Google Cloud revenue (which would represent a 50% YoY increase).
Meta’s massive $115 billion – $135 billion 2026 Capex commitment for AI infrastructure will be a focus for investors, who expect revenue of about $55.5 billion – representing 30% YoY growth . Key areas of interest include AI-driven ad revenue growth and whether it’s enough to justify the Capex. 2026 Capex guidance is expected to report adjusted EPS of $8.15 on revenue of $55.5 billion.
Amazon plans to allocate up to $200 billion in 2026 for Capex toward AI infrastructure, a 42% YoY increase, including data center expansion, proprietary chip development (Trainium/Inferentia), and high-speed networking. Analysts expect Q1 revenue of approximately $177–$178 billion, with revenue growth projected to be around 25.6% (with an annual run rate for AI services exceeding $15 billion).
Susana Schwartz
Technology Editor
RCRTech
AI Infrastructure Top Stories
I Squared takes majority stake in Elea: Alessandro Lombardi, chairman of Elea Data Centers told RCRTech that the investment gives Elea the long-term capital and global infrastructure expertise needed to accelerate its next phase of growth.
AT&T network-based edge AI: AT&T has revealed its AI “grid,” combining regional inference, cloud platforms, and private 5G. Leveraging Nvidia GPUs at 6 regional Cisco data centers for inference workloads, it’s focusing on enterprise use cases.
BT says ‘sovereignty” is about resiliency: CTO Colin Bannon reframed the sovereignty debate at FutureNet World by stating tech sovereignty is unrealistic, and operational sovereignty is about who controls the “off switch” when systems fail.
AI Today: What You Need to Know
Kairos nuclear facility for Google: Kairos broke ground on its first commercial nuclear facility, Hermes 2, in Oak Ridge, TN, with nuclear reactors cooled by molten salt and powered by golf-ball sized nuclear fuel rather than the usual uranium rods.
New specs for AI infrastructure: New specs for AI clusters, high-density racks, and direct-current power distribution are part of the Open Compute Project Foundation’s new contributions, developed with Google, Meta, and Microsoft.
Huawei Ascend 950 chips: The demand for Huawei’s Ascend 950 AI chips has reportedly soared after DeepSeek unveiled its V4 AI models, and as U.S. sales restrictions create a market gap for top-tier accelerators in the region.
Cognizant acquiring Astreya: With Astreya’s data center expertise, Cognizant intends to enhance its AI builder technology stack with production-grade AI operations capabilities for large-scale projects underway with major tech firms.
Auddia parking lot GPUs: Auddia’s $12 million in financing will drive a merger with Thramann Holdings — the primary focus of which is LT350 and its GPU-dense inference infrastructure deployed in the airspace above existing parking lots.
AOI awarded $20.9M TX grant: Applied Optoelectronics advanced optical and HFC networking products won a Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund (TSIF) grant for $20,852,518. The grant will support manufacturing plans in Sugar Land, Texas.
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