The RAN market may finally be finding its floor. After several years of decline, the global market is showing signs of stabilization, although neither Omdia nor Dell’Oro Group expects a return to strong growth.
Omdia estimates the global RAN market at approximately $17 billion in the first half of 2026, with year-over-year growth in APAC excluding China, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America resulting in single-digit growth globally. The five largest vendors — Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung — accounted for approximately 95% of the market.
Dell’Oro’s longer-term view is similarly cautious. It expects worldwide RAN revenue to grow at a 1% CAGR through 2030, following a nearly $9 billion decline between 2021 and 2024. The market stabilized in 2025 and recorded two consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth in the first quarter of 2026.
The regional picture is more varied. Ericsson ranked first in North America and Europe in Omdia’s H1 figures, while Huawei led in Asia & Oceania, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Outside China, Ericsson ranked first, followed by Huawei, Nokia, Samsung and ZTE.
So where does the next growth come from? Dell’Oro expects continued investment in 5G alongside expanding opportunities in AI RAN, cloud RAN, private wireless, massive MIMO, and small cells, as well as the first wave of 6G investment. Declining 4G revenue is expected to be offset by these areas and ongoing 5G deployments.
The bigger question is whether AI can change the growth equation. Dell’Oro says an alternative, more optimistic scenario would see mobile networks play a larger role in the AI era as traffic patterns evolve and machines account for a greater share of overall traffic. For now, however, the base case remains a market that is stabilizing rather than booming.
Juan Pedro Tomas
Editor
RCR Wireless News
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