China’s telecom market is entering a new phase in which 5G remains the core connectivity platform, while AI and computing services are becoming increasingly important growth engines for operators.
GlobalData forecasts China’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue will grow at a modest 1.3% CAGR between 2025 and 2030. Within that outlook, mobile data revenue is expected to grow faster, at 4.2% annually, supported by rising 5G subscriptions, higher mobile data usage and premium data plans. GlobalData says 5G accounted for 74.7% of China’s mobile subscriptions in 2025 and is expected to remain the dominant mobile technology through 2030.
China Mobile’s latest results provide a clear example of where the market is heading. The operator had 1.011 billion mobile customers at the end of June, including 687 million 5G customers, while mobile data traffic increased 16% year on year. At the same time, traditional telecommunications services revenue fell 5.7% in the first half, highlighting the pressure on the core connectivity business.
The faster growth is increasingly coming from computing and AI. China Mobile’s computing services revenue rose 14% to CNY52.9 billion in the first half, while AIDC revenue increased 486.1% and AI computing services revenue rose 130.1%. Computing and intelligent services together accounted for 22.6% of core revenue, crossing the 20% mark for the first time, according to the company’s results.
The shift is also visible in investment priorities. China Mobile’s first-half computing network spending increased 71.3%, while intelligent network spending rose 85.2%, compared with a 9.8% decline in telecom network spending. At the same time, GlobalData expects continued 5G investment to support mobile data growth, while fiber and gigabit upgrades underpin the fixed broadband market.
The numbers point to a telecom market being reshaped by two forces: 5G is still expanding the network and subscriber base, while AI and computing are becoming increasingly important sources of growth. China Mobile’s results show how quickly that shift is taking place, with computing and intelligent services together accounting for 22.6% of core revenue in the first half. At the broader market level, GlobalData expects mobile data revenue to grow 4.2% annually through 2030, supported by rising 5G adoption and higher mobile data ARPUs. The challenge for operators will be turning that network and technology investment into sustainable revenue as traditional voice and pay-TV businesses continue to decline.
Juan Pedro Tomas
Editor
RCR Wireless News
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