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The Satellite Industry Association sees fundamental shifts as satellite operators expand into the mobile market with NTN services
As mobile network operators increasingly partner with the satellite industry to augment terrestrial network connectivity with non-terrestrial network (NTN) systems, the big question isn’t whether orbital connectivity can connect to mobile devices. NTN-based coverage expansion has been demonstrated at scale. The more consequential question is now around industrialization: who can manufacture, launch and operate enough capacity, at sufficiently low cost, to turn technically viable services into a durable mass-market business.
That transition is visible across the broader space economy. The Satellite Industry Association put commercial satellite-industry revenue at $303 billion in 2025, within a $429 billion global space economy. During the year, the industry recorded 325 launches, deployed 4,434 satellites and surpassed 10 million satellite-broadband subscriptions. Broadband subscribers increased 62%, although associated revenue grew a more modest 16%. This is driven by SpaceX’s satellite-based broadband business Starlink; Starlink has also partnered with mobile network operators like T-Mobile US for D2D services.
The divergence between subscriber and revenue growth is instructive. Satellite broadband is expanding rapidly, but much of that growth is coming through lower-priced services and into geographies where average revenue per user is comparatively limited. The market is demonstrating strong demand while simultaneously placing greater pressure on providers to lower the cost of capacity, customer equipment and service delivery.
To better understand the dynamics shaping the relationship between MNOs and satellite operators, RCR Tech sat down with Satellite Industry Association President Tom Stroup. The following Q&A is adapted from an interview with Stroup.
Q: The satellite industry is setting records across launches, number of satellites put into orbit and adoption of broadband services delivered from orbit. Can reflect on some of the fundamental changes in the economics and utility of satellites over the past few years that gotten us to where we are today.
A: The economics and the utility have changed substantially, and pretty much every sector of the industry has contributed to that. Starting with manufacturing, we’ve been able to take advantage of mass manufacturing techniques, automation, software-enabled design [and] configurable platforms to really drive down the cost of manufacturing…We’ve seen a dramatic decrease in the cost per kilogram of launch over the course of the last 10 years, and even much more if you go back farther than that. And much more availability. The cadence of launches has just picked up tremendously, so for anybody seeking to put assets into space, you’ve got much greater ability to be able to access launch. But it doesn’t stop there. The terminal sector of the industry has also seen a significant decrease in costs. Reflecting back on when I had first joined SIA, I was at an event where a terminal manufacturer was asked, “When am I going to be able to get $500 terminals?” and the response is, “When am I getting an order for a million terminals?” We’ve gone well past that. The cost of terminals is now well under $500. So we’ve seen just innovation across all sectors of the industry. The costs have come down and just in terms of the utility, much faster speeds, more capacity, especially as it relates to broadband services…it’s just a sea change from 10 years ago.
Q: To your comment on broadband, SIA tracked 60% year-on-year subscriber growth. What’s driving that adoption — is it still focused on addressing the connectivity gap in rural areas or is it a bigger market opportunity?
A: It’s really a combination. Certainly some of it is dealing with the connectivity gap…Just looking at the United States market, there continue to be large areas of the country that have not had access to broadband service…The costs have come down and the capacity and the speeds have gone up. They’re much more competitive with cable systems. So, it’s really been a combination of the factors of those that have not had service before as well as the competition to existing providers…We’re also seeing increased utilization within the maritime and aviation industries. We hardly see another month go by without another airline indicating that it has signed up with a satellite company to be able to provide Wi-Fi service on board airplanes.
Q: With regard to D2D services, how significant do you think this will become over time? When do we move from D2D for emergency text services to something more mainstream and broadly applicable?
A: This is one of the most fascinating areas of the industry from my perspective, having spent most of my career in the terrestrial wireless industry and seeing the marriage of these technologies is wonderful…It wasn’t that long ago, probably about 10 years ago, there were real questions as to whether you could do it, whether it was technically feasible to be able to provide this service. But from the satellite carriers’ perspective, there is no market that’s comparable in terms of size with over 8 billion mobile devices. Even a fraction of that market greatly exceeds the customer base of any sector of the satellite industry…There have been various studies that have talked about willingness of mobile customers to pay extra for that service, and certainly there’s a variation from one report to the next…I think that probably those in underserved areas of the world see much greater utility than those people who live in cities as an example.But nevertheless, it’s a huge opportunity for the industry and and I think that part of it is just deploying the capacity to be able to expand beyond text and emergency messaging to be able to provide full broadband capabilities…It’s just a matter of being able to deploy the assets in space in order to make that happen.
Q: What are some of the bottlenecks that you foresee this nascent ecosystem of players having to address as we see more commercial services in the market?
A: I think it varies from one market to the next. I’m going to start with the industry as a whole though. I mean certainly access to launch has the the potential to continue to be a bottleneck, just looking at the forecasts in terms of the number of satellites to be launched…Depending upon the areas of the world, spectrum could be an issue…There can be regulatory impediments. All of the companies do need market access authorization in order to be able to provide service and there’s a difference in willingness of different countries…Ultimately for D2D services, you need partnerships in place. That can be time consuming. And then there’s just a whole question of what kind of regulatory structure is going to be placed upon the industry…Those are some of the things that uh um that keep me up at night.
Q: In the 5G cycle, NTN was put into the standard roughly half-way through. The vision for 6G is native inclusion of supports for NTNs, then in the future, a seamless convergence of terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks. In practical terms, what does that integration look like for the operator and the end user?
A: From an operator perspective, it’s not just the seamless capability of terrestrial and non-terrestrial. I think that being able to add in AI capabilities so you’ve got the ability to optimize your network, take advantage of more efficient utilization of spectrum, identifying when maintenance is required…Those are some of the things that I think they’re going to see with 6G. From a user perspective, obviously the seamless service that they’ll provide. But I think that one of the really fascinating opportunities for 6G is that we probably haven’t seen the applications that are really going to drive it. I mean, again, going back to some of the early days of the wireless industry, the applications for which mobile phones are used today couldn’t have been imagined just because we didn’t have the capacity. We didn’t have the digital throughput, we did not have the internet for that matter. I think that when it comes to the user experience, it’s going to be seamless for applications that haven’t even been invented.
