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On the heels of terrestrial spectrum deals and regulatory satellite approvals, plus big talk on its latest quarterly call about a “clear path” to “several hundred billion dollars” of telco revenue, SpaceX is reportedly negotiating with US tower companies to secure access to at least 80,000 cell sites to build out its terrestrial network for Starlink Mobile to become the fourth US mobile operator. It follows, and shows Starlink is becoming a conventional telco.
Bloomberg quotes Crown Castle on its mid-week earnings call, when asked whether it is discussing leasing deals with SpaceX, or Amazon (Leo) or other satellite firms. “Assume we’re talking to all parties,” it responded. So that’s a ‘yes’, then. American Tower declined to comment to Bloomberg; Vertical Bridge hadn’t responded. Reuters, reporting on the Bloomberg story, puts 80,000 at half the 158,500 purpose-built cell towers operating in the US last year.
TD Cowen has estimated that a nationwide terrestrial network could cost more than $80 billion, said Reuters. BNP Paribas has previously put the cost of a US build at $100 billion, based on 50,000-70,000 sites – rising to 120,000 with the C-band holdings, should SpaceX collect from the upper C-band auction next April. As reported in these pages. Bernstein Research puts the cost between $50 billion and $130 billion for a competitive US network.
Such a figure – 80,000 sites, “minimum”, say well-placed sources – would give Starlink a substantial terrestrial footprint, clearly. Crown Castle and American Tower each have around 40,000 sites in the US; Vertical Bridge has about 20,000. Interestingly, RCR columnist Vish Nandlall has done some math, based on the low-end $50 billion estimation: recovering that sum across 20 million customers over 10 years requires an ARPU of $21 per month.
Nandlall writes: “That’s a difficult starting point for a low-price competitor.” But as everyone has noted, SpaceX might also do plenty of damage to the likes of AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon in the meantime. “SpaceX doesn’t have to take many customers to damage the incumbents’ economics… For every 100 million subscribers, a $1 reduction in the monthly bill removes $1.2 billion in annual revenue [from the market].”
James Blackman
Executive Editor
RCR Wireless News
RCR Top Stories
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Beyond the Headlines
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6G, AI-RAN, D2D: 6G is taking shape, but the business case is elusive. This week: AI-RAN performance gains, the fight for control of direct-to-device satellite networks, and Industry 4.0’s push from physical AI hype to practical use cases.
What We're Reading
SpaceX cell sites: SpaceX is eyeing leases at 80,000 US cell sites, negotiating with tower companies including Crown Castle, as it builds terrestrial infrastructure to support Starlink Mobile and challenge established wireless carriers.
AT&T talks tokens: Interesting stuff: AT&T has outlined an “AI-grade network” with programmable connectivity and an ‘AI fabric’ to monitor, secure, and optimize enterprise AI traffic, including model routing, token costs, and performance.
Ukrainian satellites: ICEYE and Nokia are to develop European LEO broadband systems for Ukrainian government and defense applications. They have signed with Ukraine’s defense ministry.
ISAC in action: Ericsson has demo’d 5G drone detection in Poland, combining ISAC tech with Asseco’s acoustic detection system and Play’s network to improve positioning of low-flying drones for defense and security.
Quantum leap: Telefónica and IQM will install a quantum computer at a Madrid university to give regional researchers, students and businesses access to quantum hardware to develop applications and build expertise.
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Rise of Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN)
