Susana SchwartzCeasefire's potential impact on AI infrastructure
The announcement yesterday of a two-week “conditional” ceasefire in the Middle East is expected to provide a temporary reprieve for AI infrastructure and data centers, following weeks of direct attacks on facilities in the region:
- Amazon (Bahrain): Struck by Iranian drones on April 1, 2026.
- AWS (UAE): Two facilities were targeted by Shahed drones on March 1, 2026.
- Stargate AI (UAE): April 5 threats by Iranian officials about the $500 billion facility being built by OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle.
The damage to existing infrastructure doesn’t seem to be affecting current plans for neocloud and hyperscaler data centers being built in the Gulf region. Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia are expected to resume AI data center construction in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, despite damage sustained from drone strikes.
In terms of the energy expected to power those data centers, oil tankers are to be escorted through the Strait of Hormuz – under strict Iranian oversight and with the introduction of transit fees – which could help stabilize energy prices and the material supply chain. As of today, approximately 800 to 1,000 vessels remain trapped within the Persian Gulf, which S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates could take months to clear.
All of these factors may impact momentum for “sovereign AI,” with the region’s volatility coming into sharper focus. While the immediate threat of drone strikes on data centers has paused, neighboring states might pivot from purely economic AI goals toward more investment in defense and physical “hardening” to gain some autonomy from foreign influences.
Susana Schwartz
Technology Editor
RCRTech
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