Anthropic, AWS, Google: Compute, Cloud & Revenue

With a potential valuation somewhere between $1.42 trillion to $2 trillion, a lot of attention was paid yesterday to CEO Dario Amodei’s “Founders Letter” in his S-1 filing. He was naturally quite bullish in his language, talking about how “the abundance of AI will rapidly transform every sector of the global economy in ways greater than the impact of industrialization, electricity, semiconductors, and the internet.” But, he also talked of “potential peril” if the technology isn’t approached with caution.

In his prospectus, Amodei emphasized Anthropic’s growth, such as a 1,300% increase in the first half of 2026, which brought it to $16.3 billion in revenue, and an adjusted operating income of about $1.6 billion.

Behind those numbers, however, was the “circular financing” with Amazon and Google that made it clear nearly half of Anthropic’s sales are attributable to those two partner/competitors. An interesting dynamic, with:

– Amazon investing about $13 billion in Anthropic with an agreement to commit an additional $25 billion if Anthropic hits specific computing capacity milestones. In return, Anthropic commits to spending about $110 billion over the next 10 years on AWS cloud infrastructure.

– Google committing, with a promise of $40 billion, including an initial $10 billion cash injection of Class N common stock (based on a previous $350 billion valuation), to which Anthropic will spend $114.5 billion on Google Cloud and AI training chips over the next 7 to 10 years. Interestingly, the prospectus noted that Anthropic must pay the difference to Google as a “true-up” if its actual usage falls short of that $114.5 billion mark.

Whether this IPO will put Anthropic in a league with Elon Musk’s SpaceX remains to be seen, but the fact the company was up $1.2 billion from the prior year may show that enterprise demand for Claude is more than just hype. On the other hand, Anthropic’s prodigious computing liabilities are giving some analysts pause, with the prospectus detailing a $475 billion to $500 billion commitment to Amazon and Google for compute over the next 10 years.