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Snap take. A report in The Washington Post, picked up everywhere, says SpaceX is in talks to buy Boost Mobile from EchoStar (the WSJ link is behind a paywall), or else to use its network as a way to gain “backdoor access” to one of the ‘big three’ networks in the US. This write-up, in RCR, is cribbed from an equity research note about the matter from BNP Paribas, which concludes: “In the current ‘glass half-empty’ sentiment on wireless we expect this story to be taken negatively, even if it may hint at the fundamental challenges facing SpaceX in actually standing up a fourth network.” It writes: “The news also just reaffirms our view that SpaceX has not had a consistent strategy for wireless – aside from trying to scare a wireless carrier into giving it an MVNO – as it would have obviously just been better off buying EchoStar at the outset if this was really its goal.”
Sam McHugh, senior analyst at the firm, says: “Our understanding is EchoStar either can’t white-label the MVNO or there are change of control clauses in the deal with AT&T. (The T-Mobile deal is already winding down). This means there’s no back door to an MVNO this way. Now, SpaceX could try to buy Boost, and then, if AT&T threatens to cancel the deal, use that to bolster an argument that telcos are acting anti-competitivelly… It seems unlikely SpaceX will have much joy going down the legal route to try to get an MVNO / wholesale access… This news is unsurprising given we continue to get reports of all the things that SpaceX could be doing… The thrust [represents] a slight shift from news a few weeks ago, when SpaceX was reported to be in talks with tower companies. This seems to suggest an MVNO is still its preferred route. Of course, the two are not mutually exclusive. The fact an MVNO deal would ease its path to building a fourth network in a more economical way is one of the core reasons [it] is such a bad idea for the big three carriers.”
James Blackman
Executive Editor
RCR Wireless News
RCR Top Stories
AI crash – what if? The AI infra boom could end in a crash like the late-90s fiber bust, writes Vish Nandlall, leaving investors nursing huge losses but potentially handing utilities and infra funds cheap assets to power the next phase of growth.
AI extends 5G cycle: American Tower expects 5G densification, new spectrum, 6G, and AI traffic to create overlapping wireless investment cycles, boosting demand for site upgrades, additional capacity, and denser networks.
Deterministic AI? Qualcomm is applying a common approach to industrial robotics, automation and 6G, combining adaptive AI with deterministic controls to improve autonomy without compromising safety or reliability.
SMO/RIC automation: Operators are moving beyond legacy SON to SMO/RIC-based automation as part of mid-cycle 5G RAN refresh, writes SNS, with annual spending on SMO, RIC, and associated apps to see a CAGR of 40% through 2030.
Qualcomm and Nvidia: Qualcomm’s push to bring AI to industrial IoT, robotics and other physical AI raises questions about commercial viability. With Nokia and Ericsson rethinking private 5G, Industrial Wireless Forum should be good.
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Beyond the Headlines
Resilience sells D2D: Orange and Kyivstar say D2D is scaling as resilience becomes a key selling point. Orange is integrating Skylo messaging into mobile plans, while Kyivstar’s Starlink service reached 7.5m users in nine months.
Qualcomm on IoT: Qualcomm is expanding its Dragonwing platform through edge, vision, and robotics deals. Its approach aims to simplify IoT solutions, supporting an $8bn industrial, networking, and robotics revenue target by 2029.
Edge 5G AI payouts: T-Mobile has raised its full-year guidance, and also pointed to bigger bets ahead: more spectrum spending, edge compute economics, 6G firsts, and AI-driven network efficiency – as it, again, rejects a SpaceX MVNO deal.
R21 6G update: 3GPP has advanced Release 21 6G work, agreeing on 1024-QAM uplink modulation for FWA and initial reference-devices. Decisions on 5G-to-6G migration are unresolved; ‘constellation shaping’ stays out of the first release.
6G money making: 6G revenue will start rolling in with ISAC and physical AI – not speed, said a panel comprising BT, Ericsson, and Keysight at 6G Forum. Business cases come before the build – and Release 21 will land after LA28.
What We're Reading
SpaceX Boost? SpaceX is in talks with EchoStar about buying Boost Mobile, reports The Washington Post, or using its MVNO network to gain a backdoor to the big boy’s infra – having failed to secure network access from the the big US telcos.
5G ISAC in 2028: Ericsson is launching a 5G-and-AI ISAC system to detect and track unconnected drones over kilometre-scale distances, with commercial pilots due in 2027 and wider deployments from 2028.
Energized AI routing: Lumen is developing network routing with Emerald AI to shift AI inference to locations with ready power, while researching long-range quantum comms with Ohio State and adding post-quantum security with Fortinet.
Venue slicing: Vodafone Business has deployed dedicated 4G/5G at Manchester’s Co-op Live venue, using MOCN to share radio infra across both and 5G SA for faster services – and potentially slicing – for venue operations.
ECB MNO picks: The European Central Bank has selected two carrier groups, led by Nexi/Deutsche Telekom and Telefónica/Indra, to connect payment providers and central banks to its digital euro platform by 2029.
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Rise of Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN)
