Beyond chips: powerful second-order opps
Financial analyst consensus for 2026 Capex across Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta comes in at around $750 billion – $890 billion. Consequently, the AI infrastructure bottlenecks go far beyond GPUs, with financial analysts pointing to a powerful second-order opportunity involving suppliers of servers, racks, cooling systems, power/grid equipment, and optical networking/photonics.
Backlogs of AI orders have been publicly noted by many companies providing core facility hardware (racks, cooling, components) and grid/power engineering, as well as networking infrastructure. A recent write up featured companies like Dell, HPE, Super Micro, and GE Vernova, and others I found include (but are not limited to) Vertiv, Trane, Johnson Controls, Eaton, Caterpillar, Nokia and Corning.
A quick rundown of companies publicly reporting massive order backlogs:
Dell’s AI-optimized servers helped raise its fiscal 2027 outlook with its AI server forecast expected to increase in fiscal 2027 to about $60 billion.
HPE reported $1.8 billion of new AI systems orders in Q2 FY2026, taking cumulative AI systems bookings to $16.4 billion. AI systems backlog reached $5.9 billion, while total AI backlog, including Networks for AI, exceeded $6.3 billion.
Super Micro Computer has approximately $39 billion of orders from more than 20 customers for advanced AI servers. By July, the company said total new orders received during fiscal Q4 had exceeded $60 billion – a record for the company.
GE Vernova noted a $176 billion backlog in Q2, with its Electrification business exceeding $5 billion in data-center orders – twice that of 2025. Gas-powered equipment slot reservations reached 116 GW, with the company expecting at least 125 GW under contract by year-end.
Vertiv’s data center thermal management commands a massive $15 billion backlog driven by intense demand for its liquid cooling systems and PDUs.
Trane Technologies & Johnson Controls are both HVAC giants capturing massive backlogs through specialized enterprise equipment, such as high-efficiency chillers and Silent-Aire CDUs. Trane surged 70% from a year ago to more than $12 billion in Q2, and Johnson Controls hit a record $21.0 billion in the Q3, marking a 32% organic increase from the previous year.
Eaton (103% YoY backlog) and Caterpillar ($72 billion Q2-a 92% YoY increase) also reported surges in demand for on-site power generation and substation overhauls.
Nokia, Corning, and others that provide optical fiber are also experiencing immense short-term manufacturing pressure for high-density fiber connectivity inside GPU factories.
With ongoing power and grid constraints, thermal management challenges, and demand for custom server chassis, high-density server racks, and advanced optical networking/photonics, unprecedented backlogs are expected to continue. Investors are increasingly eyeing these second-order opportunities.
Susana Schwartz
Technology Editor
RCRTech
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Texas orders DC pause: Gov. Greg Abbott ordered a “pause” on new data center projects, asking the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to deny grid connection requests for facilities that fail to meet state requirements.
OpenAI-Apple lawsuit: OpenAI filed a motion to have the judge dismiss Apple’s trade secrets lawsuit against OpenAI and two former employees. The motion claims OpenAI is “building something entirely new and different from anything at Apple.”
Proposal for DC ‘Bill of Rights’: The “Data Center Bill of Rights” is a new federal resolution introduced by U.S. Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA) to give local communities the legal authority to reject or restrict AI data center construction.
Australia bans gas-only DCs: Australia’s energy minister Chris Bowen this week set a national data center standard that mandates data centers be powered by renewables, adding states can add requirements, but not water them down.